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Sources:
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6324
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6324/481.full.pdf tetlock
https://hbr.org/2015/10/question-certainty
https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2015/09/26/unclouded-vision
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/355/6324/474.full.pdf violence
http://freakonomics.com/2012/03/22/false-positive-science-why-we-cant-predict-the-future/
https://www.edge.org/conversation/win-at-forecasting
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (book, by Tetlock & Gardner)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3270390/
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/the-power-and-limits-of-weather-models/6507508#transcript
https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/publications
https://goodjudgment.com/science.html
http://mentalfloss.com/article/12997/why-cant-we-predict-earthquakes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zxyd2p3
http://www.planet-science.com/categories/over-11s/natural-world/2011/03/can-we-predict-earthquakes.aspx
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products